Obama Pundit

by Obama Pundit

I think a good rule of thumb when it comes to the political tolerance of the American electorate is “if it doesn’t affect my daily life, then I might be okay with it”. 

And so, as far-reaching as some of Obama’s initiatives might look on paper, their practical ramifications have not yet shown up squarely in the face of John Q. Citizen.

There are a few areas, however, that do affect the electorate on a daily basis.  The price of gas is one.  Housing values are another.  The stock market has become more relevant in recent years, as more people are directly involved through their retirement plans.     

When these areas are disrupted and uncertainty arises, politicians pay the price.  Each of these particular areas have been through major shocks in the past 18 months.  The end result was the sound repudiation of the GOP in the 2008 elections.   

So far, the Democrats have been successful at avoiding connection to these particular pressing issues, putting most (if not all) of the blame on Bush.  Meanwhile, Obama’s early policies have mostly to do with vague financial processes and wonky budgetary maneuvers.  We may argue over their wisdom and their future benefits, but the average person probably can’t perceive how they affect his daily life just yet. 

That could change soon as Obama and his party are about to undergo a massive effort to transform something that will affect all Americans immediately:  Health Care.

The last time this was tried, 1994, it resulted in major political upheaval, as HilaryCare went down to defeat and the GOP took over both houses of Congress.

If he’s not careful, Obama could be headed for the same kind of fiasco, at least if early indications hold up.   The American Medical Association has come out against his plans for a public healthcare plan.  Liberal and moderate Democrats are at each other’s throats over the details.  And this is before the various special interests groups rev up their opposition.

The current health care system isn’t very popular, but it’s familiar.  It’s the devil people know.  They may think some changes are in order, but most don’t expect anything drastic.   They want the problem–whatever it is–fixed and then they want to go on with their lives as before.

Of course, it’s a completely unrealistic attitude.  Americans want health care for all and don’t want to have to pay for any of it.  Woe unto any politician who doesn’t reach that goal, especially after promising to fix it.  Like social security, it’s another rail of politics that can electrocute you when you touch it.

And so, Obama is about to get zapped.  If he succeeds in passing a new system into law, those who fear the uncertainty of it all will not be happy when their regular health care routine is disturbed.  If health care reform is defeated, those who expected the moon from the Democrats will be pissed.

In the aftermath of such a debacle, Americans will reach political overload.  It will be too much, too soon.  They will have suffered through more than two years of political back and forth over the same (seemingly unsolvable) issues and will no doubt react strongly at the polls when given a chance, especially if unemployment and the price of energy remain problematic. 

Just as they personally liked Bill Clinton back in 1994, they personally like Barack Obama now.  As with Clinton, they are going to have some patience with him, to allow him to grow into his position.  But the voters aren’t too fond of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.  They might do the political calculus and figure out that, as with Clinton, the best way for Obama to grow is with a GOP-controlled Congress in place to keep his worst instincts at bay.  The last time the federal government exercised some sort of fiscal restraint, the same combination was in play. 

Of course, if that doesn’t work, then both parties will be in trouble in 2012 and unless the GOP can come up with a suitable alternative, I wouldn’t be surprised if truly alternative options emerged.