Since you are reading this, you probably have some interest in politics or at least are concerned about what is going on in Washington D.C. these days.  Knowing only this, it is likely that you are less enthusiastic about the current administration’s performance than your politically disinterested friends.

The above chart was constructed from the polling numbers for President Obama as collected by RealClearPolitics.  Blue dots are for polls taken from All Voters, Yellow dots are from Registered Voters and Red dots are from Likely Voters.  Solid dots represent Approval numbers while Open or Empty circles represent Disapproval numbers.

President Obama’s numbers have naturally come down some since his inauguration (day 0).  What I find interesting is where he maintains his support.  In a sense, the less you follow politics – as measured by how likely you are to vote – the better this administration appears to be doing.  In the most recent polls, his (Approval – Disapproval) Spread is +31 for All Voters (reported by Gallup), +24 for Registered Voters (reported by Quinnipiac) but only +7 for Likely Voters (reported by Rasmussen).

If these trends continue, the Obama Administration has two options: (1) address his sliding numbers among those most likely to participate in upcoming elections or (2) rely upon non-traditional voters.  The other possibility, of course, is that these trends do not continue; either because Obama’s policies begin to resonate with large numbers of traditional voters or because the linear decline is not maintained.  If it does continue, however, he projects to go negative with Likely Voters around the end of this August and with All Voters by mid-March 2010.

There has been a clear drop in Obama’s approval ratings, but the mainstream media still continues to insist they are ‘really high’, as exemplified by this bit in Time:

Obama has so far been able to maintain high approval ratings.  Even though he’s showing some weakening in his approval rating, they overall remain very high.

According to the latest Gallup Poll, Obama is at 61 percent approval, up from 58 percent a few days ago.  Rasmussen, which has consistently been the most accurate election poll, has him at 56 percent.

The point is that while these aren’t particularly low polls, they aren’t particularly high, either.  If you look at the history of Presidential approval ratings, Obama is somewhere in the middle–not as high as Kennedy or Eisenhower and not as low as Ford or Clinton in the early going.

Obama’s ratings are not so strong that he is impregnable, despite what the press likes to tell us.  To me, it sounds like a bunch of wishful thinking on their part.

What’s to account for Obama’s sudden drop in the polls in the last 10 days?  He is at 57 percent approval in Gallup and 53 percent in Rasmussen.  Other polls show drops as well, though not as steep.

I think the most likely explanation is that some moderates and conservatives who had been amenable to Obama at the start of his term have shifted back due to his perceived weak stance on Iran.  

An approach that, until recently, had been fine tuned to please the Mullahs and the foreign policy establishment didn’t resonate with a swath of Americans who are used to seeing their President stand up for democracy and liberty.  Even if his stance had some rhyme to its reason, it didn’t necessarily come across as strong or inspiring, especially when Americans are seeing Iranians bloodied in the streets.

Democratic squabbling on health care and continued economic woes aren’t helping, either.  Both of these areas aren’t exactly brimming with positivity right now.  Meanwhile, North Korea’s situation could also be coming to a head.

It could be a long, hot summer for Obama.